As the political and literal landscape of Iraq rapidly evolves, new conflicts and the reemergence of old ones have become daily occurrences. The combined strength of the Kurds, the United States, and the Iraq government forces have recaptured much of the Kurdish territory lost to the IS, this past month. While the IS operation has demonstrated that the KRG and Baghdad are capable of working together, there are no guarantees that Iraqi unity will last. In the south, as was been threatened in 06-07, sectarian violence has rotted away the already strained bonds between the Sunni and Shi’ite groups – and seems to be bringing about the complete, violent disintegration of Iraq.
In the immediate afterglow of Sisyphean Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s declaration to bring unity to Iraq, Shi’ite militias have killed dozens of Iraqi Sunnis, in a Diyala province mosque shooting. The Iranian trained militia’s murderous actions have immediately triggered Sunni political leaders to withdraw from talks to form a new government. As the murders beget further murders, Iraq has resettled into a familiar sectarian civil war- so void of cohesion that political discourse is a distant dream.
Although the U.S. air strikes and international aid have allowed the Kurdish Peshmerga and PKK to gain a military advantage over their I.S. adversary, acts of violence have become more common in the once secure Kurdistan Region. Erbil, the capitol of the KRG, was recently the site of a car bomb explosion, which killed at least 2. The oil rich Kircuk, still disputed by the KRG and Baghdad, was more seriously impacted, as explosions killed at least 31 people. The terror group’s activity has not come without a cost to the KRG – both emotionally and financially.
Throughout Iraq, all commerce, be it oil dealings, manufacturing, or trading, have been severely impacted by the IS. Truckers moving from the KRG to Baghdad can either pay a bribe to the IS – which actually gives receipts – or use time exhaustive, isolated, alternate routes. The increased threat and decreased profit margins have prompted many outside manufactures to question their Kurdish business plans. Talisman Energy Inc, one of Canada’s leading oil producers, plans to sell their 40 percent stake in Kurdamir, after the company reported a $237 million dollar second-quarter loss. Along with the existing sanctions of Kurdish Oil, these additional issues only further threaten the economic stability of the aspiring nation.
According to a recent Reuters article, the capacity of Iraqi Kurdistan’s independent oil pipeline will almost double to at least 2000,000 barrels per day by the end of the month. This increase will be vitally important to the region, given the added defense expenses and the recent exportation troubles. If the Kurds are able to develop into a reliable source of oil, there are major global implications.
The KRG’s serendipitous direct or indirect sale of oil to Israel could be enough to prove to the international market that Kurdish oil is now a viable, cost efficient option. Israel, which receives much of its oil from Russia, can now have more leverage in further oil dealings – if Kurdistan can consistently supply Israelis crude oil. Prior to the formation of Israel, Kurdistan had a large Jewish population. According to many Israeli scholars, Mustafa Barzani displayed fair treatment and had close relationships with members of the typically oppressed minority group. There is certainly reason to believe that the mutually beneficial dealings between the Masoud Barzani led Kurdistan and Israel will continue, despite the expressed desires of the United States.
The PKK’s presence on all fronts of the Kurdish territory has been greatly appreciated by Kurdish leaders. Since making peace with Turkey last year, the PKK has lived in relative safety, in the sanctuary of the Iraqi Kurdistan mountains. Their assistance, according to Kurdish leaders, has greatly boosted the Peshmerga’s morale; the PKKs arrival was much like a parade – with applauding, enthused bystanders lining the streets. The inclusion of the PKK has further cemented Kurdish military superiority over the IS – and potentially Shiite militias.
Now, in a civil war where more civilians and children will be killed than soldiers, the disintergratory Iraq is not capable forming any semblance of government. This war will bring back familiar plights: indiscriminate missiles exploding in civilian areas; epricritc murders and revenge murders will turn Mosques into battlefields; more beheaded journalists and resulting international outrage. Can America fairly expect the Kurds to wait for bloodshed to turn into brotherhood – or will America finally endorse an immediate Kircuk referendum and Kurdish oil sales?
P&G Global Research Initiative 